Over the millennia, Earth is constantly changing and influencing the living conditions of its inhabitants. According to Charles Keeling’s research at Mauna Loa and various locations around the world, the data shows the trend that CO2 concentrations have continued to rise, while the Ice Core data links the concentrations of CO2 to the Earth’s climate. (AIT 2006 & Wert 2003) Climate change is a result of the CO2 concentrations in the air, with the rise in temperature, which in turn affects the Earth’s hydrosphere. Like the domino affect, the changes in the hydrosphere will affect the agriculture and food systems. The conditions of food and water and the continued exponential growth of the human population, will greatly impact the people living around the world in the future. In the year 2110, climate change will impact the Earth’s hydrosphere, agriculture and food systems which will result in negative affects on the human population.
Though, “…climate changes are predicted to vary from place to place...” climate change is already affecting many parts of the globe (Melillo 1993). Some areas of the planet are growing warmer, while others are growing cooler, for example the Greenland Ice sheets are melting while the U.S. east coast is receiving higher amounts of snow (Zwally & Broder). Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993). More specifically, climate change models, “…predict the U.S. annual-mean temperatures to generally rise by 2 degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years, with greater increases in the northern regions (5 degrees Celsius), and northern Alaska (10 degrees Celsius).” (Adams 2008). The predictions made, are small increases which will have much bigger affects on the Earth’s hydrosphere.
Climate change affects the earth’s hydrosphere, which in turn increases temperatures around the world. By definition, hydrosphere includes all water, such as surface water, groundwater, frozen water as well as water vapor (Hydrosphere…). “Climate change will affect water resources through its impact on the quantity, variability, timing, form, and intensity of precipitation.” (Adams 2008). This is very important because water is essential to life, which makes water quality and quantity an important global issue. As stated before, many climate change models predict that the Earth temperature will raise leading to changes in precipitation and cloud patterns in the next hundred years (Melillo 1993). Though, the, “… U.S. precipitation, which increased by 5 to 10% over the 20th century,” precipitations is still predicted to increase overall (Adams 2008). Although the predictions were made that there will be an increase in precipitation, the U.S. will have an overall net decrease due to the increases of evaporation (Adams 2008). Due to, “… global climate change that have important implications for water resources include increased evaporation rates, a higher proportion of precipitation received as rain, rather than snow, earlier and shorter runoff seasons, increase water temperature and decreased water quality in both inland and coastal areas.” (Adams 2008). Countries in the temperate zones may get benefits from climate change, while the countries in the tropical and subtropical zones may be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). As water sources become limited, increased water demand for agriculture will increase the potential of conflict between different countries (Ludi 2009).
“Due to complex interactions of changes in the hydrologic cycle with global circulation patterns and local weather patterns, an increase in energy in the hydrologic cycle does not necessarily translate into an increase in precipitation in all geographic regions. It is difficult to predict future changes in regional precipitation patterns.” (IPCC, 2007)
In the future, these will create problems for the agriculture and food systems which will also effect the human population.
Just as water is essential to life, so are the agriculture and food systems. The productivity of plant life on land is a fundamental importance for humans because it is the largest portion of our food supply (Melillo 1993). “Among studies that have provided adequate water and nutrients to experimental plants, the range in the response of plant growth to doubled CO2 is between 24% and 50%.” (Melillo 1993). Although there was a significant growth increase, it still needs to be considered that it was when the plants received the right amount of nutrients and water. In the future, the actual growth rate of the plants will be determined by a number of factors, the new climate and how much water they will receive.
“Over half of the global annual NPP occurs in the tropics between the latitudes of 22.5 S and 22.5 N. Most of this productivity is attributable to tropical evergreen forest which accounts for 35.9% of the net exchange of CO2 between terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere, although it covers only 13.7% of the terrestrial land surface.” (Melillo 1993). Though there appears to be a greater growth of plants, the weather actually leads to a small decrease in global crop production, which will lead to a large disparity in agriculture between developed and developing countries (Rosenzweig 1994). It is estimated that by 2060, the conditions that is necessary for crop growth and water use to show benefit from increased levels of CO2 which will be stimulated by the climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). Though there is an estimated increase by 2060, what will happen by the year 2110? Will the climate change have affected the hydrosphere so severely that plant production will be negatively affected? “When climate change is considered without direct CO2 effects on crop growth and water use, averaged national crop yields declined everywhere, although reductions were less at middle and high latitudes… simulations with direct CO2 effects, yields were positive at middle and high latitudes, and negative at low latitudes…” (Rosenzweig 1994). This means that countries at higher latitudes will receive some benefits from the climate change, while the lower latitudes will be negatively affected by the climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). In the future, the climate and hydrosphere will play a major role in how productive agriculture and food systems will be, which will influence the human population.
Humans have always been dependent on and affected by the Earth’s hydrosphere and food systems. Over the centuries, the human population has been growing exponentially. “The impacts of climate change- sea level rise, droughts, heat waves, floods and rainfall variation- could, by 2080, push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion.” (Ludi 2009). According to Graph A.1 around 2050, there are a few predictions of how many humans will populate the Earth. The medium population line is the data that was discussed that would be most logical and this was derived from average rates of population change in specific regions as well as fertility. In Graph A.2, the medium population line predicts that the death and fertility will keep the human population around nine billion. Though this considerably not as high, there is still the fact that many people are going through malnutrition and do not have access to fresh water. So, “…the important role of international trade in the adjustment of the world food system to climate change-induced changes in crop yields.” (Rosenzweig 1994). As food becomes harder to grow and less accessible, the prices of it will go up and depending on how much a person makes will determine how much food they will be able to purchase (Rosenzweig 1994). This will create tensions, poverty and malnutrition in the human populations in the developing countries. It is also predicted that, “…production in the developed world benefited from climate change, production in developing nations declined.” (Rosenzweig). Therefore, the human population is greatly affected by the climate change and the affects it has on the hydrosphere and agriculture and food systems.
There is a big connection to humans to the climate change which is affects us in the end through a massive domino affect. The connection is the CO2 emissions that are being produced every year and not being reabsorbed faster than it is being absorbed into the atmosphere. Charles Keeling and the Ice Core data show that there is an increase in the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and that there is a direct correlation with the Earth’s temperatures as well as it being human caused (AIT 2006 & Wert 2003). If climate change is not mitigated it will create a negative chain of events, but there are plans to prevent severe adverse affects. To help prevent the tremendous impacts of climate change, plans of improving efficiency of technology and removing dependency on fossil fuels and implementing renewable and clean energy sources would need to be implemented in order to curb climate change. Stabilization wedges are the most solid ideas for mitigating climate change, examples of these include: the creation of 700 new gigawatt-sized plants, wind power, solar photovoltaic power, more efficient buildings and vehicles, and stopping all tropical deforestation (Refer to Graph B.1.) (Romm 2008). Therefore, people can take measures to prevent and mitigate the potential severe affects of climate change discussed in the article by using and supporting these different types of energy consumptions.
In conclusion, by the year 2110, climate change will negatively impact the hydrosphere, agriculture and food systems of Earth which in turn will result in negative affects on the human population. The increase in global temperatures due to CO2 emissions will change the hydrosphere and how the water travels and disperses around the world. In turn, this will affect the agriculture and food systems productivity which will cause an overall net decrease. All of this will have negative impacts on the human population, along with decreasing fertility and death rates. Today, the negative effects of climate change can be curbed by taking a preventative measures to make sure that the negative affects will not happen.
Appendix
Graph A.1.: First Graph
Graph A.2.: Second Graph
Graph B.1.: Third Graph
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