Updated Abstract

A Future written by Water

Earth has gone through changes over the millennia, but throughout the past century humans have begun to negatively affect our global climate. Even though the negative impacts are unintentional, it will eventually have serious consequences for Earth’s inhabitants. Due to increasing levels of CO2, research has shown that the global temperatures have risen and will continue to rise over the next century (Berger 1996 et al.). The increases in temperatures will also cause changes in the hydrosphere causing changes in the amounts, form and intensity of the precipitation (Adams 2008). Like the domino affect, the changes in the hydrosphere will affect agriculture and food systems. Inevitably, these changes will result in negative affects on the people living around the world in the future.

Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993). It is predicted that by 2080, the impacts of climate change could, “…push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion” (Ludi 2009). To help prevent the tremendous impacts of climate change, plans of improving efficiency of technology and removing dependency on fossil fuels and implementing renewable and clean energy sources would need to be implemented in order to curb climate change (E.g. the Stabilization wedges). What does this mean for the future? Well, it means that people around the world must work together to create and implement solutions such as the stabilization wedges to help curb the effects of climate change.

Updated Recipe Thoughs

Veggie Pasta Salad

Ingredients

For pasta...
2 lb. Multi-color pasta
1/2 lb. Feta cheese
1/4 lb. Parmesan cheese
2 cans of Sliced black olives
6 medium Tomatoes
2 bunches of Green onions
4 Carrots
2 Yellow Bell peppers
1 head of Broccoli

For dressing...
1/3 cup Olive oil
3 tbsp Vinegar
1 head of Garlic
1 tsp of Dijon mustard
Salt
Pepper

Price List and Cost Comparisons
*Needs to be updated for the new recipe

Artichokes: Organic- $4.79 for each (Jumbo sized, Vons); Non-organic- $1.99 each (Trader Joe's)
Broccoli: Organic- $2.99 for each bag (Vons); Non-organic- $1.69 each head (Trader Joe's), $1.99 per lb. (Vons)
Carrots: Organic- $0.79 for 16 oz. (Trader Joe's), $0.99 per lb. (Vons); Non-organic- $1.99 for 32 oz. (Trader Joe's), $0.99 per lb. (Vons)
Cauliflower: Organic- $1.79 per lb. (Vons); Non-organic- $1.79 each (Trader Joe's), $1.69 per lb. (Vons)
Green onions: Organic- Information not found; Non-organic- $1.19 for 6 oz. (Trader Joe's), $0.99 each bunch (Vons)

Recipe Thoughts

Idea for Recipe

Source: http://www.ivu.org/recipes/italian/pasta-and.html

Pasta and Vegetable Toss
From Marilyn Rich

Ingredients
3/4 cup rotini noodles or elbow macaroni
1 cup broccoli flowerets
1 cup cauliflower flowerets
1 x 9 oz package frozen artichoke hearts thawed
1/2 cup thinly sliced carrot
1/4 cup sliced green onions
1/2 cup reduced-calorie Italian salad dressing

Instructions
Cook pasta adding broccoli and cauliflower to boiling pasta for the last minute of cooking.

Drain.

Rinse with cold water; drain well.

Cut artichokes in half.

In a large mixing bowl combine pasta mixture, artichoke halves, carrot and green onions.

Add the Italian dressing; toss to coat.

Cover and chill for 2 to 24 hours.

Serves: 6. Preparation time: 2 hrs.


Local Availability

According to the Natural Resources Defense Council, the following foods are available to use for the salad:

Artichokes
Broccoli
Carrots
Cauliflower
Green onions

According to the recipe, this is all of the main ingredients that come fresh.


Thoughts about what the recipe should be...

When creating the recipe for the Garden Potluck, the following should be considered:

-Whether or not the food is local and seasonally ready
-Can it be purchased organic
-Can it be reasonably priced

These will be important because the whole point of creating a recipe would be to make ones that would come in handy in the future that would be healthy, taste good and be reasonably priced and or cheap to buy. That way, it will be easier to know how to eat healthier and cook in the future.

Abstract Graph

Source: Pacala, S., and R. Socolow. "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technology." Www.sciencemag.org 13 Aug. 2004: 968-72.

Abstract Information

Abstract

Earth has gone through changes over the millennia, but over the past century humans have begun to negatively affect the climate. Even though negative impacts are unintentional, it will eventually have serious consequences for Earth’s inhabitants. Due to increasing levels of CO2, the hydrosphere’s precipitation patterns have already been affected. Like the domino affect, the changes in the hydrosphere will affect the agriculture and food systems. Inevitably, these changes will result in negative affects on the people living around the world in the future. By the 2100s, climate change will have seriously impacted the Earth’s hydrosphere, agriculture and food systems which will result in negative affects on the human population.

Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993). It is predicted that by 2080, the impacts of climate change could, “…push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion” (Ludi 2009). To help prevent the tremendous impacts of climate change, plans of improving efficiency of technology and removing dependency on fossil fuels and implementing renewable and clean energy sources would need to be implemented in order to curb climate change (E.g. the Stabilization wedges).

What does this mean for the future? Well, it means that people around the world must work together to create and implement solutions such as the stabilization wedges to help curb the effects of climate change.


Pull Quotes

"Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993)."

"Slight changes in the temperatures will impact the amount, intensity, time and quality of the precipitation (Adams 2008)."

"Countries in the Temperate Zone may get benefits from climate change, while the countries in the Torrid Zone may be more vulnerable due to the effects of climate change (Rosenzweig 1994)."

"Studies have shown that provided adequate amounts of water and nutrients, plant growth increased between 24% and 50% from the doubled CO2 amounts in the atmosphere (Melillo 1993)."

"It is predicted that by 2080, the impacts of climate change could, “…push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion” (Ludi 2009)."

Food Inc. Reflection

A few things that I found striking were:

1) The Hidden Surprises
Food now is more than just what is grown from the Earth like back in the old days, now there are preservatives, additives and some are even genetically modified. Antibiotics which are given to cows affect bone growth. Surprisingly enough, these antibiotics are transferred to the cow’s milk and now are affecting humans, which cause children especially girls to mature more quickly at a younger age. Now we have to ask ourselves, if this is just one side affect, what is the side affect of the other preservatives and additives in the foods that consumers are being served?

2) No Longer Bound by Limitations
It was stated in Food Inc. that farmers used to be able to grow 20 bushels per acre, and now over 200 bushels per acre is no problem. This is to be expected from the advances made in agriculture and industry over the past century. Now food can be grown without limitations. It would be expected that growing more food is better, but it is quite the opposite. As more and more food can be grown and harvested, it seems that the quality has not been able to keep up. Major companies are using new technologies to cut corners and continue their old ways that continue to make them money. It is apparent that most of the U.S. populace is unaware of the situation at hand and the major food corporations want to keep it that way. But there needs to be limitations to growing such large amounts of food, which hardly have any variety. Major farms grow mostly corn, what and soy bean. What about all the other foods? Where is the balance of nutritional value in most of the consumers’ diets in the U.S. if the correct foods are not even being grown in the farms? Where are the limitations for the major corporations to stop overusing the lands in order to make massive amounts of profits at the disadvantage of the consumers?

3) Cows’ Diets to Health Hazards
An ideal image of a farm, is seeing cows eating grass in the fields and having a fenced off area for the vegetable patch. But for most of the U.S. major corporate feed lots, this is a fantasy. Sadly, the cows in feed lots are fed an unnatural corn diet, which is used to fatten up the cows’ meat to create more product to sell. Unfortunately, the want for profit has created a hazardous situation. Deadly outbreaks of E. coli occur, from infected meat. Due to the corn diet of the cows, it allows deadly E. coli strains to grow inside the rumen (basically a giant stomach in the cow). These health hazards can surprisingly be wiped clean out of the cows’ systems in five days of feeding them a grass based diet. So why are the corporations not doing this? After all it is putting all of the consumers in jeopardy? Another issue with feed lots and other huge animal corporations is that the animals are kept in horrid living conditions. It is not fair to the animals and it is definitely not fair to the consumers who are in jeopardy of the health hazards that fester in these cesspools. Again, why hasn’t the major corporations taken charge of the situation? Why haven’t they begun to implement healthy food diets for the animals which will lead to better quality food to sell? A sad reality is that it would be more expensive, and these major corporations are all for a quick buck. Now the question is, is the quick buck more important than the health and better treatment of animals which inevitably affect the consumers?

4) Service vs. Profit
Another student in class concisely stated that Food Inc. really showed how in the food industry, it is services (E.g. small farms) vs. profit (E.g. major corporations). As seen a small all natural and organic farmer really cared about what he grew and sold, while the major corporations tried to fit as much as they could in the amount of space they could get. As the major corporations have dominated with their profit making, it is harder for the small farmers to continue to stay running. Which should the U.S. decide is best service or profit? Service, I feel is the best way to go since it would have a larger variety and more of nature would be in balance, as well as the humane treatment of animals.

My thoughts after watching Food Inc. is as follows:

Consumers in the U.S. need to demand and support the type of food that they want. To do this the populace should more frequently by and grow organic food and support humane treatment of animals in the food industry. After all these major corporations can only stay in business if people continue to support them by buying their products. It needs to be clear that awareness must be spread about the issue brought up in Food Inc. and through this will come action, which will eventually bring about the change to the food industry.

Ideas for Food Industry Reformation

In order for the food industry to reform, a few things need to happen:

- Corn subsidizing must be at the very least lessened, new subsidies should be placed on growing varieties and organic foods.
- Animal treatment must start with being humane, along with stopping genetic manipulation.
- All agricultural farms and companies need to be tested for health hazards in the farms and plants and in the products, if these tests are failed more than once then they must be shut down (as stated Kevin’s Law, which has not yet been passed).

A discussion question that I would like to pose to the class is:

What is the most crucial thing in the food industry that needs to be changed in order to reform it, so that it will eventually be reliable and safe for the consumers as well as humane to all animals and humans in the food industry? In short, what aspect of the food industry must be changed in order for it to turn around and reform?

A Future Written by Water

Over the millennia, Earth is constantly changing and influencing the living conditions of its inhabitants. According to Charles Keeling’s research at Mauna Loa and various locations around the world, the data shows the trend that CO2 concentrations have continued to rise, while the Ice Core data links the concentrations of CO2 to the Earth’s climate. (AIT 2006 & Wert 2003) Climate change is a result of the CO2 concentrations in the air, with the rise in temperature, which in turn affects the Earth’s hydrosphere. Like the domino affect, the changes in the hydrosphere will affect the agriculture and food systems. The conditions of food and water and the continued exponential growth of the human population, will greatly impact the people living around the world in the future. In the year 2110, climate change will impact the Earth’s hydrosphere, agriculture and food systems which will result in negative affects on the human population.

Though, “…climate changes are predicted to vary from place to place...” climate change is already affecting many parts of the globe (Melillo 1993). Some areas of the planet are growing warmer, while others are growing cooler, for example the Greenland Ice sheets are melting while the U.S. east coast is receiving higher amounts of snow (Zwally & Broder). Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993). More specifically, climate change models, “…predict the U.S. annual-mean temperatures to generally rise by 2 degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years, with greater increases in the northern regions (5 degrees Celsius), and northern Alaska (10 degrees Celsius).” (Adams 2008). The predictions made, are small increases which will have much bigger affects on the Earth’s hydrosphere.

Climate change affects the earth’s hydrosphere, which in turn increases temperatures around the world. By definition, hydrosphere includes all water, such as surface water, groundwater, frozen water as well as water vapor (Hydrosphere…). “Climate change will affect water resources through its impact on the quantity, variability, timing, form, and intensity of precipitation.” (Adams 2008). This is very important because water is essential to life, which makes water quality and quantity an important global issue. As stated before, many climate change models predict that the Earth temperature will raise leading to changes in precipitation and cloud patterns in the next hundred years (Melillo 1993). Though, the, “… U.S. precipitation, which increased by 5 to 10% over the 20th century,” precipitations is still predicted to increase overall (Adams 2008). Although the predictions were made that there will be an increase in precipitation, the U.S. will have an overall net decrease due to the increases of evaporation (Adams 2008). Due to, “… global climate change that have important implications for water resources include increased evaporation rates, a higher proportion of precipitation received as rain, rather than snow, earlier and shorter runoff seasons, increase water temperature and decreased water quality in both inland and coastal areas.” (Adams 2008). Countries in the temperate zones may get benefits from climate change, while the countries in the tropical and subtropical zones may be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). As water sources become limited, increased water demand for agriculture will increase the potential of conflict between different countries (Ludi 2009).
“Due to complex interactions of changes in the hydrologic cycle with global circulation patterns and local weather patterns, an increase in energy in the hydrologic cycle does not necessarily translate into an increase in precipitation in all geographic regions. It is difficult to predict future changes in regional precipitation patterns.” (IPCC, 2007)
In the future, these will create problems for the agriculture and food systems which will also effect the human population.

Just as water is essential to life, so are the agriculture and food systems. The productivity of plant life on land is a fundamental importance for humans because it is the largest portion of our food supply (Melillo 1993). “Among studies that have provided adequate water and nutrients to experimental plants, the range in the response of plant growth to doubled CO2 is between 24% and 50%.” (Melillo 1993). Although there was a significant growth increase, it still needs to be considered that it was when the plants received the right amount of nutrients and water. In the future, the actual growth rate of the plants will be determined by a number of factors, the new climate and how much water they will receive.
“Over half of the global annual NPP occurs in the tropics between the latitudes of 22.5 S and 22.5 N. Most of this productivity is attributable to tropical evergreen forest which accounts for 35.9% of the net exchange of CO2 between terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere, although it covers only 13.7% of the terrestrial land surface.” (Melillo 1993). Though there appears to be a greater growth of plants, the weather actually leads to a small decrease in global crop production, which will lead to a large disparity in agriculture between developed and developing countries (Rosenzweig 1994). It is estimated that by 2060, the conditions that is necessary for crop growth and water use to show benefit from increased levels of CO2 which will be stimulated by the climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). Though there is an estimated increase by 2060, what will happen by the year 2110? Will the climate change have affected the hydrosphere so severely that plant production will be negatively affected? “When climate change is considered without direct CO2 effects on crop growth and water use, averaged national crop yields declined everywhere, although reductions were less at middle and high latitudes… simulations with direct CO2 effects, yields were positive at middle and high latitudes, and negative at low latitudes…” (Rosenzweig 1994). This means that countries at higher latitudes will receive some benefits from the climate change, while the lower latitudes will be negatively affected by the climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). In the future, the climate and hydrosphere will play a major role in how productive agriculture and food systems will be, which will influence the human population.

Humans have always been dependent on and affected by the Earth’s hydrosphere and food systems. Over the centuries, the human population has been growing exponentially. “The impacts of climate change- sea level rise, droughts, heat waves, floods and rainfall variation- could, by 2080, push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion.” (Ludi 2009). According to Graph A.1 around 2050, there are a few predictions of how many humans will populate the Earth. The medium population line is the data that was discussed that would be most logical and this was derived from average rates of population change in specific regions as well as fertility. In Graph A.2, the medium population line predicts that the death and fertility will keep the human population around nine billion. Though this considerably not as high, there is still the fact that many people are going through malnutrition and do not have access to fresh water. So, “…the important role of international trade in the adjustment of the world food system to climate change-induced changes in crop yields.” (Rosenzweig 1994). As food becomes harder to grow and less accessible, the prices of it will go up and depending on how much a person makes will determine how much food they will be able to purchase (Rosenzweig 1994). This will create tensions, poverty and malnutrition in the human populations in the developing countries. It is also predicted that, “…production in the developed world benefited from climate change, production in developing nations declined.” (Rosenzweig). Therefore, the human population is greatly affected by the climate change and the affects it has on the hydrosphere and agriculture and food systems.

There is a big connection to humans to the climate change which is affects us in the end through a massive domino affect. The connection is the CO2 emissions that are being produced every year and not being reabsorbed faster than it is being absorbed into the atmosphere. Charles Keeling and the Ice Core data show that there is an increase in the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and that there is a direct correlation with the Earth’s temperatures as well as it being human caused (AIT 2006 & Wert 2003). If climate change is not mitigated it will create a negative chain of events, but there are plans to prevent severe adverse affects. To help prevent the tremendous impacts of climate change, plans of improving efficiency of technology and removing dependency on fossil fuels and implementing renewable and clean energy sources would need to be implemented in order to curb climate change. Stabilization wedges are the most solid ideas for mitigating climate change, examples of these include: the creation of 700 new gigawatt-sized plants, wind power, solar photovoltaic power, more efficient buildings and vehicles, and stopping all tropical deforestation (Refer to Graph B.1.) (Romm 2008). Therefore, people can take measures to prevent and mitigate the potential severe affects of climate change discussed in the article by using and supporting these different types of energy consumptions.

In conclusion, by the year 2110, climate change will negatively impact the hydrosphere, agriculture and food systems of Earth which in turn will result in negative affects on the human population. The increase in global temperatures due to CO2 emissions will change the hydrosphere and how the water travels and disperses around the world. In turn, this will affect the agriculture and food systems productivity which will cause an overall net decrease. All of this will have negative impacts on the human population, along with decreasing fertility and death rates. Today, the negative effects of climate change can be curbed by taking a preventative measures to make sure that the negative affects will not happen.

Appendix

Graph A.1.: First Graph

Graph A.2.: Second Graph

Graph B.1.: Third Graph


Bibliography

Melillo, Jerry M., A. David McGuire, David W. Kicklighter, Berrien Moore III, Charles J. Vorosmarty, and Annette L. Schloss. "Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production." Nature 363 (1993): 234-40.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Martin L. Parry. "Potential impact of climate change on world food supply." Nature 367 (1994): 133-38.

"Water Resources | Climate Change - Health and Environmental Effects | U.S. EPA." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 04 Mar. 2010. .

Broder, John M. "Climate-Change Debate Is Heating Up in Deep Freeze - NYTimes.com." The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. The New York Times, 10 Feb. 2010. Web. 10 Mar. 2010. .

Zwally, H. Jay, Waleed Abdalati, Tom Herring, Kristine Larson, Jack Saba, and Konrad Steffen. "Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow -- Zwally Et Al. 297 (5579): 218 -- Science." Science/AAAS | Scientific Research, News and Career Information. 6 June 2002. Web. 10 Mar. 2010. .

Adams, Richard M., and Dannele E. Peck. "Choices Article - Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources." Welcome to Choices Magazine Online! Web. 11 Feb. 2010. .


"Hydrosphere - Definition of Hydrosphere by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia." Dictionary, Encyclopedia and Thesaurus - The Free Dictionary. Web. 10 Mar. 2010. .

Ludi, Eva. "Climate change, water and food security." ODI: Overseas Development Institute (2009): 1-8.

United Nations. "Economic and Social Affairs World Population to 2300." United Nations (2004): 1-254.

Friedman, Thomas L. "The New York Times." The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. The New York Times, 15 Apr. 2007. Web. 10 Mar. 2010. .

Pacala, S., and R. Socolow. "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technology." Www.sciencemag.org 13 Aug. 2004: 968-72.

Socolow, Robert H., and Stephen W. Pacala. "How to Cut Emissions." National Geographic. Princeton University. Web. 15 Mar. 2010. .

Romm, Joseph. "Cleaning up on Carbon : Nature Reports Climate Change." Nature Publishing Group : Science Journals, Jobs, and Information. Nature Reports, 19 June 2008. Web. 15 Mar. 2010. .

An Inconvienent Truth. Dir. Davis Guggenheim. Perf. Al Gore. Paramount, 2006. Film.

Wert, Spencer. "Money for Keeling: Monitoring CO2." The American Institute of Physics -- Physics Publications and Resources. The Discovery of Global Warming, 2003. Web. 15 Mar. 2010. .

Working Group II, and Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Rep. Cambridge: Cambridge UP, 2007. Print.

^ IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, Martin L., Canziani, Osvaldo F., Palutikof, Jean P., van der Linden, Paul J., and Hanson, Clair E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 1000 pp.