Updated Abstract

A Future written by Water

Earth has gone through changes over the millennia, but throughout the past century humans have begun to negatively affect our global climate. Even though the negative impacts are unintentional, it will eventually have serious consequences for Earth’s inhabitants. Due to increasing levels of CO2, research has shown that the global temperatures have risen and will continue to rise over the next century (Berger 1996 et al.). The increases in temperatures will also cause changes in the hydrosphere causing changes in the amounts, form and intensity of the precipitation (Adams 2008). Like the domino affect, the changes in the hydrosphere will affect agriculture and food systems. Inevitably, these changes will result in negative affects on the people living around the world in the future.

Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993). It is predicted that by 2080, the impacts of climate change could, “…push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion” (Ludi 2009). To help prevent the tremendous impacts of climate change, plans of improving efficiency of technology and removing dependency on fossil fuels and implementing renewable and clean energy sources would need to be implemented in order to curb climate change (E.g. the Stabilization wedges). What does this mean for the future? Well, it means that people around the world must work together to create and implement solutions such as the stabilization wedges to help curb the effects of climate change.

Updated Recipe Thoughs

Veggie Pasta Salad

Ingredients

For pasta...
2 lb. Multi-color pasta
1/2 lb. Feta cheese
1/4 lb. Parmesan cheese
2 cans of Sliced black olives
6 medium Tomatoes
2 bunches of Green onions
4 Carrots
2 Yellow Bell peppers
1 head of Broccoli

For dressing...
1/3 cup Olive oil
3 tbsp Vinegar
1 head of Garlic
1 tsp of Dijon mustard
Salt
Pepper

Price List and Cost Comparisons
*Needs to be updated for the new recipe

Artichokes: Organic- $4.79 for each (Jumbo sized, Vons); Non-organic- $1.99 each (Trader Joe's)
Broccoli: Organic- $2.99 for each bag (Vons); Non-organic- $1.69 each head (Trader Joe's), $1.99 per lb. (Vons)
Carrots: Organic- $0.79 for 16 oz. (Trader Joe's), $0.99 per lb. (Vons); Non-organic- $1.99 for 32 oz. (Trader Joe's), $0.99 per lb. (Vons)
Cauliflower: Organic- $1.79 per lb. (Vons); Non-organic- $1.79 each (Trader Joe's), $1.69 per lb. (Vons)
Green onions: Organic- Information not found; Non-organic- $1.19 for 6 oz. (Trader Joe's), $0.99 each bunch (Vons)

Recipe Thoughts

Idea for Recipe

Source: http://www.ivu.org/recipes/italian/pasta-and.html

Pasta and Vegetable Toss
From Marilyn Rich

Ingredients
3/4 cup rotini noodles or elbow macaroni
1 cup broccoli flowerets
1 cup cauliflower flowerets
1 x 9 oz package frozen artichoke hearts thawed
1/2 cup thinly sliced carrot
1/4 cup sliced green onions
1/2 cup reduced-calorie Italian salad dressing

Instructions
Cook pasta adding broccoli and cauliflower to boiling pasta for the last minute of cooking.

Drain.

Rinse with cold water; drain well.

Cut artichokes in half.

In a large mixing bowl combine pasta mixture, artichoke halves, carrot and green onions.

Add the Italian dressing; toss to coat.

Cover and chill for 2 to 24 hours.

Serves: 6. Preparation time: 2 hrs.


Local Availability

According to the Natural Resources Defense Council, the following foods are available to use for the salad:

Artichokes
Broccoli
Carrots
Cauliflower
Green onions

According to the recipe, this is all of the main ingredients that come fresh.


Thoughts about what the recipe should be...

When creating the recipe for the Garden Potluck, the following should be considered:

-Whether or not the food is local and seasonally ready
-Can it be purchased organic
-Can it be reasonably priced

These will be important because the whole point of creating a recipe would be to make ones that would come in handy in the future that would be healthy, taste good and be reasonably priced and or cheap to buy. That way, it will be easier to know how to eat healthier and cook in the future.

Abstract Graph

Source: Pacala, S., and R. Socolow. "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technology." Www.sciencemag.org 13 Aug. 2004: 968-72.

Abstract Information

Abstract

Earth has gone through changes over the millennia, but over the past century humans have begun to negatively affect the climate. Even though negative impacts are unintentional, it will eventually have serious consequences for Earth’s inhabitants. Due to increasing levels of CO2, the hydrosphere’s precipitation patterns have already been affected. Like the domino affect, the changes in the hydrosphere will affect the agriculture and food systems. Inevitably, these changes will result in negative affects on the people living around the world in the future. By the 2100s, climate change will have seriously impacted the Earth’s hydrosphere, agriculture and food systems which will result in negative affects on the human population.

Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993). It is predicted that by 2080, the impacts of climate change could, “…push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion” (Ludi 2009). To help prevent the tremendous impacts of climate change, plans of improving efficiency of technology and removing dependency on fossil fuels and implementing renewable and clean energy sources would need to be implemented in order to curb climate change (E.g. the Stabilization wedges).

What does this mean for the future? Well, it means that people around the world must work together to create and implement solutions such as the stabilization wedges to help curb the effects of climate change.


Pull Quotes

"Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993)."

"Slight changes in the temperatures will impact the amount, intensity, time and quality of the precipitation (Adams 2008)."

"Countries in the Temperate Zone may get benefits from climate change, while the countries in the Torrid Zone may be more vulnerable due to the effects of climate change (Rosenzweig 1994)."

"Studies have shown that provided adequate amounts of water and nutrients, plant growth increased between 24% and 50% from the doubled CO2 amounts in the atmosphere (Melillo 1993)."

"It is predicted that by 2080, the impacts of climate change could, “…push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion” (Ludi 2009)."

Food Inc. Reflection

A few things that I found striking were:

1) The Hidden Surprises
Food now is more than just what is grown from the Earth like back in the old days, now there are preservatives, additives and some are even genetically modified. Antibiotics which are given to cows affect bone growth. Surprisingly enough, these antibiotics are transferred to the cow’s milk and now are affecting humans, which cause children especially girls to mature more quickly at a younger age. Now we have to ask ourselves, if this is just one side affect, what is the side affect of the other preservatives and additives in the foods that consumers are being served?

2) No Longer Bound by Limitations
It was stated in Food Inc. that farmers used to be able to grow 20 bushels per acre, and now over 200 bushels per acre is no problem. This is to be expected from the advances made in agriculture and industry over the past century. Now food can be grown without limitations. It would be expected that growing more food is better, but it is quite the opposite. As more and more food can be grown and harvested, it seems that the quality has not been able to keep up. Major companies are using new technologies to cut corners and continue their old ways that continue to make them money. It is apparent that most of the U.S. populace is unaware of the situation at hand and the major food corporations want to keep it that way. But there needs to be limitations to growing such large amounts of food, which hardly have any variety. Major farms grow mostly corn, what and soy bean. What about all the other foods? Where is the balance of nutritional value in most of the consumers’ diets in the U.S. if the correct foods are not even being grown in the farms? Where are the limitations for the major corporations to stop overusing the lands in order to make massive amounts of profits at the disadvantage of the consumers?

3) Cows’ Diets to Health Hazards
An ideal image of a farm, is seeing cows eating grass in the fields and having a fenced off area for the vegetable patch. But for most of the U.S. major corporate feed lots, this is a fantasy. Sadly, the cows in feed lots are fed an unnatural corn diet, which is used to fatten up the cows’ meat to create more product to sell. Unfortunately, the want for profit has created a hazardous situation. Deadly outbreaks of E. coli occur, from infected meat. Due to the corn diet of the cows, it allows deadly E. coli strains to grow inside the rumen (basically a giant stomach in the cow). These health hazards can surprisingly be wiped clean out of the cows’ systems in five days of feeding them a grass based diet. So why are the corporations not doing this? After all it is putting all of the consumers in jeopardy? Another issue with feed lots and other huge animal corporations is that the animals are kept in horrid living conditions. It is not fair to the animals and it is definitely not fair to the consumers who are in jeopardy of the health hazards that fester in these cesspools. Again, why hasn’t the major corporations taken charge of the situation? Why haven’t they begun to implement healthy food diets for the animals which will lead to better quality food to sell? A sad reality is that it would be more expensive, and these major corporations are all for a quick buck. Now the question is, is the quick buck more important than the health and better treatment of animals which inevitably affect the consumers?

4) Service vs. Profit
Another student in class concisely stated that Food Inc. really showed how in the food industry, it is services (E.g. small farms) vs. profit (E.g. major corporations). As seen a small all natural and organic farmer really cared about what he grew and sold, while the major corporations tried to fit as much as they could in the amount of space they could get. As the major corporations have dominated with their profit making, it is harder for the small farmers to continue to stay running. Which should the U.S. decide is best service or profit? Service, I feel is the best way to go since it would have a larger variety and more of nature would be in balance, as well as the humane treatment of animals.

My thoughts after watching Food Inc. is as follows:

Consumers in the U.S. need to demand and support the type of food that they want. To do this the populace should more frequently by and grow organic food and support humane treatment of animals in the food industry. After all these major corporations can only stay in business if people continue to support them by buying their products. It needs to be clear that awareness must be spread about the issue brought up in Food Inc. and through this will come action, which will eventually bring about the change to the food industry.

Ideas for Food Industry Reformation

In order for the food industry to reform, a few things need to happen:

- Corn subsidizing must be at the very least lessened, new subsidies should be placed on growing varieties and organic foods.
- Animal treatment must start with being humane, along with stopping genetic manipulation.
- All agricultural farms and companies need to be tested for health hazards in the farms and plants and in the products, if these tests are failed more than once then they must be shut down (as stated Kevin’s Law, which has not yet been passed).

A discussion question that I would like to pose to the class is:

What is the most crucial thing in the food industry that needs to be changed in order to reform it, so that it will eventually be reliable and safe for the consumers as well as humane to all animals and humans in the food industry? In short, what aspect of the food industry must be changed in order for it to turn around and reform?

A Future Written by Water

Over the millennia, Earth is constantly changing and influencing the living conditions of its inhabitants. According to Charles Keeling’s research at Mauna Loa and various locations around the world, the data shows the trend that CO2 concentrations have continued to rise, while the Ice Core data links the concentrations of CO2 to the Earth’s climate. (AIT 2006 & Wert 2003) Climate change is a result of the CO2 concentrations in the air, with the rise in temperature, which in turn affects the Earth’s hydrosphere. Like the domino affect, the changes in the hydrosphere will affect the agriculture and food systems. The conditions of food and water and the continued exponential growth of the human population, will greatly impact the people living around the world in the future. In the year 2110, climate change will impact the Earth’s hydrosphere, agriculture and food systems which will result in negative affects on the human population.

Though, “…climate changes are predicted to vary from place to place...” climate change is already affecting many parts of the globe (Melillo 1993). Some areas of the planet are growing warmer, while others are growing cooler, for example the Greenland Ice sheets are melting while the U.S. east coast is receiving higher amounts of snow (Zwally & Broder). Over the next century, it is predicted by most climate models that the increased CO2 concentrations will likely lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C, influencing changes in precipitation and cloud patterns (Melillo 1993). More specifically, climate change models, “…predict the U.S. annual-mean temperatures to generally rise by 2 degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years, with greater increases in the northern regions (5 degrees Celsius), and northern Alaska (10 degrees Celsius).” (Adams 2008). The predictions made, are small increases which will have much bigger affects on the Earth’s hydrosphere.

Climate change affects the earth’s hydrosphere, which in turn increases temperatures around the world. By definition, hydrosphere includes all water, such as surface water, groundwater, frozen water as well as water vapor (Hydrosphere…). “Climate change will affect water resources through its impact on the quantity, variability, timing, form, and intensity of precipitation.” (Adams 2008). This is very important because water is essential to life, which makes water quality and quantity an important global issue. As stated before, many climate change models predict that the Earth temperature will raise leading to changes in precipitation and cloud patterns in the next hundred years (Melillo 1993). Though, the, “… U.S. precipitation, which increased by 5 to 10% over the 20th century,” precipitations is still predicted to increase overall (Adams 2008). Although the predictions were made that there will be an increase in precipitation, the U.S. will have an overall net decrease due to the increases of evaporation (Adams 2008). Due to, “… global climate change that have important implications for water resources include increased evaporation rates, a higher proportion of precipitation received as rain, rather than snow, earlier and shorter runoff seasons, increase water temperature and decreased water quality in both inland and coastal areas.” (Adams 2008). Countries in the temperate zones may get benefits from climate change, while the countries in the tropical and subtropical zones may be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). As water sources become limited, increased water demand for agriculture will increase the potential of conflict between different countries (Ludi 2009).
“Due to complex interactions of changes in the hydrologic cycle with global circulation patterns and local weather patterns, an increase in energy in the hydrologic cycle does not necessarily translate into an increase in precipitation in all geographic regions. It is difficult to predict future changes in regional precipitation patterns.” (IPCC, 2007)
In the future, these will create problems for the agriculture and food systems which will also effect the human population.

Just as water is essential to life, so are the agriculture and food systems. The productivity of plant life on land is a fundamental importance for humans because it is the largest portion of our food supply (Melillo 1993). “Among studies that have provided adequate water and nutrients to experimental plants, the range in the response of plant growth to doubled CO2 is between 24% and 50%.” (Melillo 1993). Although there was a significant growth increase, it still needs to be considered that it was when the plants received the right amount of nutrients and water. In the future, the actual growth rate of the plants will be determined by a number of factors, the new climate and how much water they will receive.
“Over half of the global annual NPP occurs in the tropics between the latitudes of 22.5 S and 22.5 N. Most of this productivity is attributable to tropical evergreen forest which accounts for 35.9% of the net exchange of CO2 between terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere, although it covers only 13.7% of the terrestrial land surface.” (Melillo 1993). Though there appears to be a greater growth of plants, the weather actually leads to a small decrease in global crop production, which will lead to a large disparity in agriculture between developed and developing countries (Rosenzweig 1994). It is estimated that by 2060, the conditions that is necessary for crop growth and water use to show benefit from increased levels of CO2 which will be stimulated by the climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). Though there is an estimated increase by 2060, what will happen by the year 2110? Will the climate change have affected the hydrosphere so severely that plant production will be negatively affected? “When climate change is considered without direct CO2 effects on crop growth and water use, averaged national crop yields declined everywhere, although reductions were less at middle and high latitudes… simulations with direct CO2 effects, yields were positive at middle and high latitudes, and negative at low latitudes…” (Rosenzweig 1994). This means that countries at higher latitudes will receive some benefits from the climate change, while the lower latitudes will be negatively affected by the climate change (Rosenzweig 1994). In the future, the climate and hydrosphere will play a major role in how productive agriculture and food systems will be, which will influence the human population.

Humans have always been dependent on and affected by the Earth’s hydrosphere and food systems. Over the centuries, the human population has been growing exponentially. “The impacts of climate change- sea level rise, droughts, heat waves, floods and rainfall variation- could, by 2080, push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion.” (Ludi 2009). According to Graph A.1 around 2050, there are a few predictions of how many humans will populate the Earth. The medium population line is the data that was discussed that would be most logical and this was derived from average rates of population change in specific regions as well as fertility. In Graph A.2, the medium population line predicts that the death and fertility will keep the human population around nine billion. Though this considerably not as high, there is still the fact that many people are going through malnutrition and do not have access to fresh water. So, “…the important role of international trade in the adjustment of the world food system to climate change-induced changes in crop yields.” (Rosenzweig 1994). As food becomes harder to grow and less accessible, the prices of it will go up and depending on how much a person makes will determine how much food they will be able to purchase (Rosenzweig 1994). This will create tensions, poverty and malnutrition in the human populations in the developing countries. It is also predicted that, “…production in the developed world benefited from climate change, production in developing nations declined.” (Rosenzweig). Therefore, the human population is greatly affected by the climate change and the affects it has on the hydrosphere and agriculture and food systems.

There is a big connection to humans to the climate change which is affects us in the end through a massive domino affect. The connection is the CO2 emissions that are being produced every year and not being reabsorbed faster than it is being absorbed into the atmosphere. Charles Keeling and the Ice Core data show that there is an increase in the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and that there is a direct correlation with the Earth’s temperatures as well as it being human caused (AIT 2006 & Wert 2003). If climate change is not mitigated it will create a negative chain of events, but there are plans to prevent severe adverse affects. To help prevent the tremendous impacts of climate change, plans of improving efficiency of technology and removing dependency on fossil fuels and implementing renewable and clean energy sources would need to be implemented in order to curb climate change. Stabilization wedges are the most solid ideas for mitigating climate change, examples of these include: the creation of 700 new gigawatt-sized plants, wind power, solar photovoltaic power, more efficient buildings and vehicles, and stopping all tropical deforestation (Refer to Graph B.1.) (Romm 2008). Therefore, people can take measures to prevent and mitigate the potential severe affects of climate change discussed in the article by using and supporting these different types of energy consumptions.

In conclusion, by the year 2110, climate change will negatively impact the hydrosphere, agriculture and food systems of Earth which in turn will result in negative affects on the human population. The increase in global temperatures due to CO2 emissions will change the hydrosphere and how the water travels and disperses around the world. In turn, this will affect the agriculture and food systems productivity which will cause an overall net decrease. All of this will have negative impacts on the human population, along with decreasing fertility and death rates. Today, the negative effects of climate change can be curbed by taking a preventative measures to make sure that the negative affects will not happen.

Appendix

Graph A.1.: First Graph

Graph A.2.: Second Graph

Graph B.1.: Third Graph


Bibliography

Melillo, Jerry M., A. David McGuire, David W. Kicklighter, Berrien Moore III, Charles J. Vorosmarty, and Annette L. Schloss. "Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production." Nature 363 (1993): 234-40.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Martin L. Parry. "Potential impact of climate change on world food supply." Nature 367 (1994): 133-38.

"Water Resources | Climate Change - Health and Environmental Effects | U.S. EPA." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 04 Mar. 2010. .

Broder, John M. "Climate-Change Debate Is Heating Up in Deep Freeze - NYTimes.com." The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. The New York Times, 10 Feb. 2010. Web. 10 Mar. 2010. .

Zwally, H. Jay, Waleed Abdalati, Tom Herring, Kristine Larson, Jack Saba, and Konrad Steffen. "Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow -- Zwally Et Al. 297 (5579): 218 -- Science." Science/AAAS | Scientific Research, News and Career Information. 6 June 2002. Web. 10 Mar. 2010. .

Adams, Richard M., and Dannele E. Peck. "Choices Article - Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources." Welcome to Choices Magazine Online! Web. 11 Feb. 2010. .


"Hydrosphere - Definition of Hydrosphere by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia." Dictionary, Encyclopedia and Thesaurus - The Free Dictionary. Web. 10 Mar. 2010. .

Ludi, Eva. "Climate change, water and food security." ODI: Overseas Development Institute (2009): 1-8.

United Nations. "Economic and Social Affairs World Population to 2300." United Nations (2004): 1-254.

Friedman, Thomas L. "The New York Times." The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. The New York Times, 15 Apr. 2007. Web. 10 Mar. 2010. .

Pacala, S., and R. Socolow. "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technology." Www.sciencemag.org 13 Aug. 2004: 968-72.

Socolow, Robert H., and Stephen W. Pacala. "How to Cut Emissions." National Geographic. Princeton University. Web. 15 Mar. 2010. .

Romm, Joseph. "Cleaning up on Carbon : Nature Reports Climate Change." Nature Publishing Group : Science Journals, Jobs, and Information. Nature Reports, 19 June 2008. Web. 15 Mar. 2010. .

An Inconvienent Truth. Dir. Davis Guggenheim. Perf. Al Gore. Paramount, 2006. Film.

Wert, Spencer. "Money for Keeling: Monitoring CO2." The American Institute of Physics -- Physics Publications and Resources. The Discovery of Global Warming, 2003. Web. 15 Mar. 2010. .

Working Group II, and Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Rep. Cambridge: Cambridge UP, 2007. Print.

^ IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, Martin L., Canziani, Osvaldo F., Palutikof, Jean P., van der Linden, Paul J., and Hanson, Clair E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 1000 pp.

March 4th Information Gathering...

Sources that both my partner and I were able to find:

"Water Resources | Climate Change - Health and Environmental Effects | U.S. EPA." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 04 Mar. 2010. .

"Half the World's Population Faces Major Food Crisis by 2100, Science Study Finds - FSI Stanford." Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI Stanford). Web. 04 Mar. 2010. .

I typed a lot of the research in from previous sources that I found. I just got more specific and considered all possible information that I would use.

Peer Reviewed Sources

Melillo, Jerry M., A. David McGuire, David W. Kicklighter, Berrien Moore III, Charles J. Vorosmarty, and Annette L. Schloss. "Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production." Nature 363 (1993): 234-40.

This article showed a lot of facts about how the climate change will affect the growth of plants. I think that this source will be helpful in determining what will happen in the senior project. Below were the most helpful facts from the article that I believe that I can use. The summary of the information is the following: climate change will affect the weather which in turn will affect the NPP of the plants, it is predicted that there will be varied affects throughout the plant’s regions.

Quotes:

“Most climate models predict that the buildup of these gases is likely to lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 C to 4.5 C and changes in precipitation and cloud patterns over the next century.”

“It is of fundamental importance to humans because the largest portion of our food supply is from productivity of plant life on land, as is wood for construction and fuel.”

“…climate changes are predicted to vary from place to place...”

“… process-based models describe how important ecosystem processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition and nutrient cycling interact to affect the net primary production (NPP).”

“Among studies that have provided adequate water and nutrients to experimental plants, the range in the response of plant growth to doubled CO2 is between 24% and 50%.”

“The source for the global data sets on climate (air temperature, precipitation and cloudiness), elevation and soil texture are described elsewhere; the climate data represents long-term averages.”

“Hydrological inputs for TEM were determined with a water balance model that uses the climate, elevation, soils and vegetation data.”

“Over half of the global annual NPP occurs in the tropics between the latitudes of 22.5 S and 22.5 N. Most of this productivity is attributable to tropical evergreen forest which accounts for 35.9% of the net exchange of CO2 between terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere, although it covers only 13.7% of the terrestrial land surface.”

“… least productive vegetation types include polar desert, tundra, and desert, which collectively account for 3.0% of terrestrial NPP and cover 16.7% of the terrestrial land area.”

“…among vegetation types and range from no increase for some northern ecosystems to increases of 50%...”

“…tropical evergreen forest may decrease PAR enough to decrease NPP. The largest NPP decrease for tropical… predicts the largest increase in mean annual cloudiness (9.8%).”

“…contemporary climate at 312.5 p.p.m.v. CO2, the global responses to changes in both CO2 and climate do not vary substantially among the GCM climates with increases ranging between 20% and 26.1%.”

“…predicts a decrease of 7% in annual precipitation for temperate mixed forest in the region…”

Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Martin L. Parry. "Potential impact of climate change on world food supply." Nature 367 (1994): 133-38.

This article discussed how the climate change would affect the world’s food supply. It stated that overall, developed countries would see an increase and benefit from the climate change, while undeveloped won’t. It also discussed the regions of the world that would benefit which is at higher latitudes while the lower latitudes would be affecting negatively. I think that this article definitely was very useful and has many facts that I hope to implement in my senior project.

Quotes:

“…doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will lead to only a small decrease in global crop production.”

“…the important role of international trade in the adjustment of the world food system to climate change-induced changes in crop yields.”

“…world food trade model to simulate the economic consequences of these potential changes in crop yields… estimate changes in world food prices and in the number of people at risk of hunger in developing countries.”

“…appears to be a large disparity in agricultural vulnerability to climate change between developed and developing countries.”

“…crop growth and water use have been shown to benefit from increase levels of CO2… these conditions are assumed to occur in 2060… which the simulated climate had warmed to the effective doubled CO2 level of ~4 C by 2060.”

“When climate change is considered without direct CO2 effects on crop growth and water use, averaged national crop yields declined everywhere, although reductions were less at middle and high latitudes… simulations with direct CO2 effects, yields were positive at middle and high latitudes, and negative at low latitudes…”

“Food availability, in turn, depends on income and price levels.”

“The largest negative changes occur in developing regions, though the extent of decreased productions varies greatly by country depending on the projected climate. By contrast, in developed countries, production is estimated to increase…”

“Climate change scenarios near the high end of the IPCC range of doubled-CO2 warming exerted a slight-to-moderate negative effect on simulated world cereal production, even when the beneficial direct effects of CO2, farm-level adaptations and future technological yield improvements were taken into account…”

“…production in the developed world benefited from climate change, production in developing nations declined.”

“Thus, while come countries in the temperate zones may reap some benefit from climate change, many countries in the tropical and subtropical zones appear more vulnerable to the potential impacts of global warming…”

Nate Lewis Lecture Reflection

I find it intriguing that currently the world is consuming around 13 TW of energy. Honestly, I still find it hard to imagine how much fuel we must burn and consume to produce that much energy. Of the world’s 13 TW, the United State’s consumes 3 TW of energy. According to Nate Lewis, if the humans want to put a dent in the carbon emissions into the atmosphere by 2050 we will need 10-13% carbon free emissions energy sources. Right now, fossil fuels are cheaper than alternative energies and until renewable resources become cheaper or there is some type of “game changer”, Nate Lewis suspects that there will not be a change for the major energy dependence (E.g. fossil fuels). Although this seems negative, I would have to agree with what Nate Lewis has to say on this subject. I feel that now-a-days, there are a lot of businesses that put profit before the big picture and want the cheapest route to get the most profit. Therefore, fossil fuels are there most convenient choice. Though this should actually be taken on a different perspective, if businesses and citizens were to invest in sustainable resources, things will eventually change. Though this change would have to take place worldwide, it seems like it might not happen right away. But steps are being taken in many countries around the world which is good, though the problem Nate Lewis highlighted was that we will need to produce a lot more energy as the Earth’s population continues to increase exponentially. After listening to this presentation, I also realized that each energy source is probably not a solution for the entire world except for solar energy. Problem is there isn’t a technology that we currently have that is cost effective so that everyone can get it. Once that happens, it will be possible for solar energy to be used across the world.

Now another important topic was how energy relates to economic, national and environmental security of the world and its nations. Right now, it seems to me that a lot of governments care more about economic and national security before they worry about the environmental safety. It seems like they look for the quickest, cheapest form of energy to get products made and sold. Giving the environmental security little thought until a problem becomes persistent, for example when issues arise with the nation’s people from the factories. I think that when trying to decide something is sustainable for a nation, many things need to be factored in and knowing which would be a better fit for the environments in that country. Overall, this lecture was very thought provoking and it has made me realize that there is a lot more factors to consider when choosing an energy source than I had originally thought.

Senior Project Research Part II

So far, I have stuck with the idea of water and its quality in the next 100 years. Through this research, I have been able to find information on climate change and how it affects water. So I think that I can unravel new interesting facts about it. For me, the big idea that stands out to me right now is that water affects many things. After all, without water many animals would be in big trouble. I am considering after reading through all of my research, that I would be interested in a senior project related to climate change, water, food and the human population.

“Climate change will affect water resources through its impact on the quantity, variability, timing, form, and intensity of precipitation.” I found that this was true with most of the information I found in my research. I feel like using the statistics I found about the rainfall and temperature rise predictions of the future from climate change models, could be used to make an interesting vision of the future. Then combine that with food and human population, to get an extremely complicated cause and effect problem. Though I feel that my ideas are continuing to come together, I don’t know where to go with all the information and where to go more specific. Right now, I am trying to figure out what aspect of the correlations between climate change, water, food and the human population would be, or is it as specific as it can get?

Overall, my plan for senior project would be to have how climate change affects the water. Then I would have a sort of cause and effect discussion of how the water then affects the environments and the ability to grow food which they effects the human population and its carrying capacity. After the discussion, I would have a piece where it discusses how the future will look and if possible explain for different major parts of the world. I was wondering if that would seem too large of a scope, or should the idea of what the future will look like be focused to one region of the world?

Annotated Bibliography Part II

"Water Resources | Climate Change - Health and Environmental Effects | U.S. EPA." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 11 Feb. 2010. .

This was an introduction to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) water resources articles and it touched on water, climate change and how it could affect people. This article also had references to other places from the cite that would have more detailed information, I think this was beneficial because it was an overview of the information making it easy to determine if some of it would be helpful for further research for senior project. It also discussed how evaluating information is extremely difficult due to the challenge of water availability, quality and stream flow are sensitive to temperature changes. It also stated that water resources are heavily managed in the U.S. but there are still areas where it is scarce.

Quotes:

“All regions of the world show an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems…”

“The future effects of climate change on water resources in the U.S. and other parts of the world will depend on trends in both climatic and non-climatic factors.”

Adams, Richard M., and Dannele E. Peck. "Choices Article - Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources." Welcome to Choices Magazine Online! Web. 11 Feb. 2010. .

Overall, this article was about climate change and the effects it will have on water. Water is very important to life which means that there are many things that it affects as illustrated in the article when it talked about: agriculture, economy, affect the cost of energy, biosphere and politics all over the world. This article discusses that the heat increases will most likely cause lots of problems especially on agriculture causing many droughts and wildfires could become even more devastating. At the end, there are strategies that are briefly discussed that could be used to help with the issues that were highlighted in the article; a few of the ideas were: “… revising water storage and relwase programs for resercoirs, adopting crops and cropping practices that are robust over a wider spectrum of water availability…”

Quotes:

“Climate change will affect water resources through its impact on the quantity, variability, timing, form, and intensity of precipitation.”

“Models of climate change (GCMs) predict the U.S. annual-mean temperatures to generally rise by 2degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years, with greater increases in the northern regions (5 degrees Celsius), and northern Alaska (10 degrees Celsius).”

“Despite predictions of increased precipitation in most regions, net decreases in water availability are expected in those areas, due to offsetting increases in evaporation.”

“Water shortages will cause the price of water to rise…”

“… important effect of the water resource impacts discussed… is the potential for more frequent and intense interstate and international water allocation conflicts.”

Ludi, Eva. "Climate change, water and food security." ODI: Overseas Development Institute(2009): 1-8.

Overall, this article discussed the affects of climate change on food and water. It also discussed many facts and statistics about Africa and their problems now and projected estimates of the future. There are also graphs that could come in handy when talking about and finding more about which areas of the world are being affected with water deficiencies and which are suffering severely. This article also discusses strategies to combat limited water situation, as well as conclusions about what should be done.

Quotes:

“The impacts of climate change- sea level rise, droughts, heat waves, floods and rainfall variation- could, by 2080, push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion.”

“Food security is defined as a ‘situation […] when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to insuffiecent, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.’ ”

“In addition to farming areas, many of the world’s rangelands are in semi-arid areas and susceptible to water deficits; any further in water resources will greatly impact carrying capacity.”

“Modification of irrigation techniques, including amount, time or technology (e.g. drip irrigation systems)”

“Climate change and increased water demand for agriculture in future decades is anticipated to be an added challenge to trans-boundary framework agreements, increasing the potential for conflict.”

Plant Choice

If I were to pick a specific plant to grow in our School Community Garden, it would have to be strawberries. It is best grown from already growing plants, that way the strawberries can be grown more quickly. Starting a strawberry plant from the seeds, will supposedly bear fruit the second spring since it started growing. The strawberry plants should be able to grow throughout the year but will produce fruit in late spring. According to my Be Wise Ranch, local organic farm, and another source it seems the June Bearing Strawberries would be best to grow. I also found that strawberries should be planted where they can get six or more hours of direct sunlight per day, basically the more sun the better. Make sure to have soil that retains moisture but not too much and is not too dry, otherwise the strawberries will not be successful since they do not tolerate droughts or standing in water. Optimal pH level for planting the strawberries is 5.3 to 6.5 pH. Rid the site of weeds, grubs and soil-born diseases. Make sure that no plants or trees compete with the strawberries needed “food supplies and water”. Strawberries should not be planted near tomatoes, peppers, eggplants, potatoes which often carry disease that they are susceptible too.

Interesting facts about strawberries are:
-Eight strawberries have 20% of the folic acid you need everyday.
-The average straeberry has 200 seeds.
-Ancient Romans believed that strawberries alleviated many symptoms like melancholy, fevers and many other diseases.


Direct Sources:
http://www.bewiseranch.com/harvestschedule.htm
http://www.gardenguides.com/547-strawberries-fragaria-x-ananassa-information.html
http://www.pickyourown.org/strawberryfacts.htm
http://www.ehow.com/how_2242620_start-strawberry-container-garden.html
http://www.ehow.com/how_4851759_grow-strawberries-seed.html
http://www.michigan.gov/mda/0,1607,7-125-1570_2468_2471-38102--,00.html

Annotated Bibliography

1) "Water | EPA History | US EPA." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 22 Jan. 2010. .

Notes: “Everything that man himself injects into the biosphere- chemical, biological or physical- can ultimately find its way into the earth’s water,” stated by Charles C. Johnson. I found this statement profoundly true, all the more reason to take care of things and not pollute or destroy to much of anything on this earth. Take care of it or soon there won’t be anything left, like shown in many movies like “Soyolent Green” and “Mad Max: The Road Warrior” (or one of the Mad Max movies…). Another statement I found very accurate was, “…limits to natural purification—that our nation’s waters cannot indefinitely absorb an endless avalanche of waste.” Very true, if we do not stop this not only is the environment and other wildlife going to suffer, but eventually humans will suffer too. Other than this information, this article was not to informative about water trends.



2) "Health Effects of Drinking Water Contamination." Water Filters, Water Purifiers and Water Softeners. Web. 22 Jan. 2010. .

Notes: “About 14.1 million Americans routinely consume drinking water containing pesticides, including weed killers, atarzine, alachlor, and simazine…” This fact is very disturbing, but this is just the icing on the problem after reading the rest of the article. Sort of paraphrased the following: Water is the foundation of all life, therefore we must take all threats to drinkable water seriously. There were many studies performed that water quality had a correlation to many health problems throughout the nation. “The chemicals used in pipes, and joints, may contaminate drinking water after it has been treated.” This is indeed something to worry about, yet another thing that can be very problematic if there are no tests or studies. “The contamination of water is directly related to the degree of contamination of our environment.” Interesting fact that may be useful for putting things into perspective of how little fresh water we need and how much the human population will theoretically consume… “Under conditions of average… the human body… must replace about 2.3 liters of water each day.” Then the last thing that was kind of disturbing was that, “…at least 2,110 contaminants have been identified in the nation’s drinking water supplies… contaminants not regulated may be present in drinking water.” Actually after reading that again it is very disturbing! What other contaminants could there be that are dangerous to our health and environment?



3) "ARS : National Programs." ARS : Home. Web. 22 Jan. 2010. .

Notes: According to this article, U.S. citizens, organizations and the government are taking measures to protect the environment and the public health. The USDA National Program addresses three components: agricultural watershed management, irrigation and problem areas, and water quality protection and management. In the U.S. there are twelve benchmark watersheds, therefore we should be taking good care of them as well as all of the other water sources in the U.S. Overall, I didn’t find that much relevant information for the project, but there was plenty of details about this specific research project report for the government program.



4) "Water Science: Water quality." USGS Georgia Water Science Center. Web. 22 Jan. 2010. .

Notes: Defined water quality as, “…describe the chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of water, usually in respect to its suitability for a particular purpose.” After reading the following, “… vulnerability of surface water and ground water to degradation depends on a combination of natural… and human activities…” I realized that it takes a balance of things to make sure water is clean and that actions must be taken for bad conditions to be improved. There are a few types of pollutant types and how they enter the water some of which are the following: point source, air, and eroded soil and sediment. At first I was shocked to read this I hadn’t thought that pollutants traveling in the air would actually affect the water, but after considering it… it would be true and is a sad fact because as industrialization increases so does the pollutants getting pumped into the atmosphere. I also hadn’t really considered the fact that erosion and sediment can bring the pollutants straight into the water, which can have devastating affects on many things. Different types of pollutants are: microorganisms, bacteria, chemicals, sewage spills, pesticides and runoff. Water quality has become an important issue as the Nation’s population increases tremendously. Many of the points and facts brought up were very useful in this source.

Water Senior Project Proposal

The general theme is, “What the world will be like in 100 years?” Though at this point, I am thinking about focusing on what the world’s water will be like. I came across the following quote stated by Charles C. Johnson, “Everything that man himself injects into the biosphere- chemical, biological or physical- can ultimately find its way into the earth’s water.” I feel that I could possibly base a lot of the research that is needed as well as outline what one could expect from this project about water in the future. So I feel that I will focus on the conditions of the water quality in 100 years as well as different factors along with that. Different conditions that would most likely affect the water which I should probably look more in depth are: human growth population, waste rates and trends as well as water quality trends of the present. Through my project on water, I will want to portray how serious water quality is and how it is important to take care of it, but as a final note, I hope to find a way/ or plan of how to give hope to everyone about how to solve the issues.

My preliminary research has shown how the chemicals that humans are putting into the water is very bad, which cause many severe health issues (e.g. cancer). “About 14.1 million Americans routinely consume drinking water containing pesticides, including weed killers, atarzine, alachlor, and simazine…”2 Water has also been shown to become contaminated after being treated, just by being transported to homes through pipes and joints (may or may not be contaminated, but there is a chance). Many studies have been performed that show water quality has a direct correlation with human health. I also found how much water a human uses and needs to replace on average, which is approximately 2.3 liters each day. Another fact, “…at least 2,110 contaminants have been identified in the nation’s drinking water supplies… contaminants not regulated may be present in drinking water.” My research also found that vulnerability of surface water and ground water depends on natural factors as well as human activities. There are a few types of pollutant types and how they enter the water some of which are the following: point source, air, and eroded soil and sediment. Different types of pollutants are: microorganisms, bacteria, chemicals, sewage spills, pesticides and runoff. Water quality has become an important issue as the Nation’s population increases tremendously. 4 Overall, I found information that will help show how water is important to keep clean, though I feel I need more information about water quality trends over the years and more about waste rates.

Overall my thoughts on this research is that I am either saddened or disturbed. Sad because earth is slowly getting destroyed and that we are hurting ourselves. Disturbed by of all the different types of “identified” chemicals in water that we could be drinking. It makes me wonder how many more are not identified or controlled, in other words, what other contaminants could there be that are dangerous to our health and environment? I realized that it takes a balance of things to make sure water is clean and that actions must be taken for bad conditions to be improved. I also hadn’t realized that there is more than one way of contaminating the water by air, point source and erosion and sediment. The more I think about it the bigger and bigger the issue seems to become. Now I need to decide on where to focus my research I think.

“Farmer in Chief” Reading Discussion

After reading “Farmer in Cheif” by Michael Pollan, I began to see a new perspective of the food industry as well as possible solutions to make it better, as outlined in the article. There were many interesting, startling and thought provoking facts throughout the article. Throughout the article, I found many startling facts. The first being that it, “…Currently takes 10 calories of fossil fuel to produce a single calorie of modern supermarket food…” This was very shocking for me; I had never really even considered the fact that fossil fuels are used in growing the food used to make most of the things that we find in the store. Another shocking fact that I found in the article was that, “…Ammonium nitrate being used as the main ingredient of both bombs and chemical fertilizer…” This fact is very scary, just knowing that foods are grown in such chemicals is repulsive and I am glad that I am making better food choices. The third fact that is shocking to me is that the, “…U.S.D.A. estimates that Americans throw out 14% of the food they buy, and more is wasted by retailers, wholesalers, and institutions.” It is scary knowing that a lot of food is wasted all of the time; it makes me want to be more conscious of how much food I am wasting. The last startling is that, “…For nations to lose the ability to substantially feed themselves will find themselves compromised in international dealing as nations that depend on foreign resources.” The author goes on to say that there is no alternative to food. This is probably the scariest thought, I have to agree with it though and it makes me want to do something to solve the problem of food in our country.

On a happier note, it is said in the article that, “…Markets for alternative kinds of food-organic, local, pasture-based, humane- are thriving as never before…” This means that more people in America are realizing that it is good to eat healthy and organic foods. I personally feel that this type of farming is the way to go since before technology sun light worked pretty well. The author of this article brings up a good point when he talks about balancing the farms with plants and animals. I really think that is they way to go with farming. I found it interesting that the organic way of farming would create many new green jobs for people around America. I most definitely think that it is a good idea, though I can also see how that would be difficult to convert all of the huge farms to organic. Overall, these were the more startling, interesting and thought provoking ideas and facts that I found in the article.

During the class discussion of the article, I felt that it was good overall since we discussed main topics that came up in the text. I felt that together our class had similar comprehensions of the text and agreed on many of the ideas brought up throughout our discussion. Some of the points that were brought up through this talk are the following: the health of America, national security related to food, as well as food justice. For America’s health, we discussed how eating all of the unhealthy foods produced through the use of fossil fuels and chemical fertilizers, as well as how this food is putting many citizens at risk for many health problems that could be avoided by eating healthy. We also discussed the possibilities of converting the farms of America into ones that could sustain the entire population. The last main topic was food justice and should food be defined with a specific definition. There was a debate for the whether or not a definition should be created, one person mentioned how there would always be a new bad food if we keep defining what real food is. I felt that discussing these topics with the class was very enlightening and helped open my eyes to the many obstacles and opinions that people could have to the plans outlined in the article. Overall, I felt this was an amazing learning opportunity in which I got to comprehend the complexities of solving a national issue, which will eventually become a global problem.

Pollan, Michael. "Farmer in Chief." Letter to Mr. President-Elect. 9 Oct. 2008. New York Times. 9 Oct. 2008. Web. 11 Jan. 2010. .

Relations to Agriculture

After discussing this topic with my parents, I learned that I have strong ties to ranchers on both sides of my family. My family had farms where they took care of cattle, which is part of agriculture. This fact I hadn’t really considered before. I find it really interesting that I came from a background of mostly cattle ranchers, personally I had originally thought that there were more farmers. I also learned that my Grandpa’s mother grew up on a farm. I feel that I learned a lot of new family history from my discussion. I also knew before this discussion, that my family participates in supporting the growth of organic foods by buying it biweekly from local farmers. I feel that learning my ties to agriculture is very helpful, especially for me since it is so diverse. I felt that I understand that there are many aspects of agriculture that I hadn’t expect before.

What is One Thing that I am Curious About?

One thing that I am curious about in Environmental Science is the aspect of organic farming. How can the United States society become more organic food friendly? How can we promote a more healthy food diet in the schools? Is there a way to grow organic foods in your own home? There are many aspects of growing organic foods. It was brought to my attention in John’s class this morning that bugs can be used to combat food pests. So I am curious of all the types of crop protection, as well as the growing process and what it would take to get enough organic food to feed a family? Through this semester, I hope to learn more about organic foods.